Guernsey's property market: the bounce-back

This article first appeared in the Guernsey Press.

2020 has been a funny year, you will have heard people say.  In terms of the buying and selling of Guernsey property that is certainly true. Looking at the figures, in April this year there were a mere 27 conveyances registered at the Greffe, with a total value of about £11m. To put that in perspective, for the same month last year there were 145 conveyances with a total value of nearly £46m.

Through April, May and June as the rules of lockdown initially hit hard and then gradually eased, the property sector in Guernsey adapted quickly to find ways of continuing to transact business. Much credit has to go to the Court and the Court staff who were able to find ways of making sure that businesses could refinance and essential workers could complete their house purchases. Despite the significant efforts that were put into keeping the property sector alive it was impossible to carry on as usual. Estate agents weren't able to show prospective buyers properties that were for sale, surveyors couldn't value properties and banks weren't able to see customers face to face to arrange mortgages. The property market crashed.

The less optimistic thought the market could take 18 months to recover fully. The more optimistic thought there was no reason why the market should not rebound to previous levels as soon as businesses were able to get back to normal.  What nobody anticipated was the way that the market came back to life.

Last month, for example, there were 154 conveyances registered at the Greffe with a total value of about £64m. In actual fact, the activity in Q3 has been so great that it has made up for the lack of activity in Q2. The September year-to-date figure for the total value of transactions is higher than the same period in any of the previous 10 years. The number of transactions YTD at 1,062 is nearly the same as last year, which in turn was more than any time since 2012.

What happened? Those of us who are interested in these things have some ideas. Part of it was no doubt pent-up activity – some people had decided to move house before the pandemic and simply carried on with their plans as soon as they could.  But that doesn't explain all of the buying and selling. From speaking to some of our clients it's clear that working from home, self-isolation and staycations (with no end in sight) have made it desirable to have more space. The employee working from home might like a dedicated work space, the family might like a larger family room and everyone would like a bit more space in the garden for growing things or lounging around.

Throw into the mix the fact that some buyers had little or no interruption in their earnings, and have possibly spent less on entertainment and holidays, and you have a perfect recipe for a vibrant housing market.

Most of what has been said above applies to the local market. The general feeling is that the open market may be about to experience significant interest as well. Those who have the means can see the attraction of relocating to a stunning location where they can move about free from the restrictions found elsewhere -a real added bonus to Guernsey's  already compelling offering.

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